Mortgage lenders are reporting a strong start to the 2026 home buying season

Bob Johnson, head of origin at Nowrezand sees early cycle momentum following years of compressed startup volume.

“Rates are probably about 80 basis points (bps) or lower this year compared to where they were at the same time last year,” Johnson said. “This year is definitely more active than the same time last year … we’re seeing demand there for people who can save a few bucks on their mortgage.”

Johnson says Newrez is aligning its production targets with forecasts from Mortgage Bankers Association again Fannie Mae. So far, the work in 2026 in Newrez is much higher than at the same time last year, he confirmed.

Elezaj said that even a lower rate would prompt borrowers to act. Some homeowners are refinancing after a 25-bps decrease — especially those with large loan balances — while others are waiting for a decrease closer to 50 bps.

Many borrowers who got mortgages in the mid-6% to 7% range in recent years now have opportunities to lower their payments if rates fall further, he added.

While Elezaj declined to predict specific rate movements, he said current economic data supports lower rates over time and lenders are preparing for a possible increase in demand.

UWM currently averages about 12 days from loan submission to clear to closing, he said, and has invested in staffing and technology to handle increased volume. Elezaj pointed to the company’s artificial intelligence platform, MIA, which proactively communicates with borrowers when rates drop.

“When rates dropped recently, MIA made 35,000 calls in one day,” he said. “He works 24/7, 365 to identify where consumers can benefit from price reductions.”

David Battany, EVP of capital markets for Guild Mortgagesaid that the level of “zigzag” that characterized the housing market last year is now at a low level, a fact that he called “encouraging.”

“Right now, activity is normal for this time of year,” Battany said. “And even though it’s one of the worst markets ever for first-time homebuyers, part of our mortgage pipeline is for first-time homebuyers. We think — with all the turbulence, hardship, problems, middle age and everything else — that by 2026, there’s going to be a lot of first-time homebuyers in the market.”

Trending products

While investor-oriented products such as the delete-service-coverage ratio (DSCR) have received attention in recent years, Elezaj said the standard mortgage backed by Fannie Mae. again Freddie Mac are likely to remain the primary volume drivers for UWM.

Elezaj said high home equity levels are also causing some homeowners to refinance or tap equity to consolidate high-interest debt.

“Since people are paying high interest on their credit cards, there is an opportunity to use that balance to pay off the mortgage,” he said.

Johnson said rates may need to fall into the mid-5% range to trigger major activity, but he has seen increased interest in adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) as borrowers wait for lower rates.

Nicole Rueth, leader of The Rueth Team CrossCountry Mortgagehe said he has seen consumers show new confidence after years of pandemic-driven caution.

“We got off the ground,” said Rueth. “We have more seller approvals than we’ve seen in a long time, there’s still plenty of inventory in many metros, and home prices have decreased while wages have increased. That’s giving consumers more purchasing power and encouraging positive sentiment.”

Rueth, who is based in the Denver area, said the spring market will teach lenders about the importance of financing to create demand.

“If you can get a buyer on the balance with a handle of five, even 5.99%, I use the seller’s approvals. My whole goal is to make that work whether it’s the credit score or the purchase price, just to get them on the list of five,” said Rueth.

Rueth says he’s seeing trends like buy-before-sell programs and non-QM loans. Given his proximity to Denver, he has been making many loans.

Time on the market

Administrators say they are looking at broader economic and political signals to gauge borrower behavior. Johnson noted that his team is using the Super Bowl as “the line in the sand” where the original should start to rise. And Elezaj said that news such as the possible appointment of Kevin Warsh as The Federal Reserve the chair can affect work even before the prices go away.

“These kinds of stories drive work,” Elezaj said. “People expect prices to go down. We expect that changes will happen, and people will start focusing more on finances and buying homes.”

Rueth said he uses signals to educate his team and borrowers.

“I try to teach my buyers and sellers how to almost read the tea leaves,” he said. “(It’s about) what’s going on in the larger space that will ultimately affect not only interest rates, but potentially affect inventory — and even more so, consumer sentiment and consumers’ sense of whether or not they’re confident enough to take the plunge.”