Cardano (ADA) Back in ‘Survival Mode’ Despite Rallying Whales and DeFi Expansion Plans
This year has been a rough ride for Cardano (ADA) investors, as weak retail participation has clashed with renewed development activity and aggressive hoarding of major owners.
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Although on-chain data points to a long-term increase in confidence, market sentiment for ADA remains fragile, leaving the asset caught between technical pressures and efforts to expand the ecosystem.
Cardano is sitting at #11 trading near $0.28 after a sharp correction from January highs above $0.44. The price structure reflects a broad cooling across the market, with declining derivatives activity and cautious trader positioning reinforcing analysts’ interpretation of the token’s “survival mode” nature.
ADA's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ADAUSD on Tradingview
Market Fatigue Gives Cardano (ADA) Price Momentum
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently warned that the crypto market could face another 90 to 180 days of slow conditions, citing market fatigue following years of market shocks, including exchange failures, regulatory uncertainty, and repeated cycles of speculation.
Derivative data support this observation. Open interest in ADA futures fell to about $447 million, along with a drop in trading volume, reflecting a reduction in litigation among traders. Funding levels have also turned negative, suggesting that bearish motion is building in bullish markets.
Technically, the ADA assesses basic levels of support. The token continues to protect the rising trendline formed after the February low near $0.22, while resistance remains in the $0.29–$0.30 area.
Analysts note that repeated testing of support increases the risk of a breakdown, which may reveal a close target near $0.25 if selling pressure intensifies. Despite the weakness, a very low formation and stability above short-term moving averages leaves room for recovery if the broader market sentiment improves.
Whales Move in as Retail Interest Falls
While retail demand is slowing, large owners seem to be taking the opposite approach. On-chain data shows wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA accumulated more than 220 million tokens, worth more than $61 million, during the recent price drop.
The Mean Coin Age metric has reached a three-month high, indicating that long-term holders are increasingly reluctant to sell. Historically, this combination of whale accumulation and reduced token movement can strengthen circulating supply and help establish lower prices during downturns.
Some analysts argue that February’s decline may signal a long-term entry point if market conditions stabilize, although they caution that historical repetitions do not guarantee future performance.
DeFi Expansion Plans Aim to Change the Narrative
Apart from price action, Cardano is advancing with ecosystem development to strengthen its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. The network plans to launch USDCx, a USDC-backed stablecoin that aims to address the lack of capital that limits DeFi growth on the chain.
In addition, Cardano includes the LayerZero interoperability protocol, enabling connection to more than 140 blockchain networks, including Ethereum and Solana. This move is expected to increase access to cross-chain liquidity and attract developers looking for broader user bases.
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Development activity remains high, with hundreds of repository updates focused on wallet development, inter-chain communication, and network infrastructure. However, the market reaction has so far been muted, suggesting that investors are expecting limited recovery rather than individual announcements.
Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart on Tradingview
