This Crypto Winter Is More Vibrant Than Previous Cycles: Bitwise CIO

The current bear market is not as bad as that of previous years, according to Matt Hougan.

“People say this [crypto] winter is worse than 2018 or 2022 don’t remember 2018 or 2022,” said Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan on Tuesday.

In 2018, “we had $3,000 worth of Bitcoin and a ‘global computer’ [Ethereum] without applications and limited performance,” he said before adding, “In 2022, we had a complete market collapse and a regulator that wanted to put us out of business.”

Things are a little different today as “we have coins going to $3 trillion, tokenization going to $200 trillion, a good regulatory climate, and better tokenomics,” he said.

Additionally, BlackRock and Apollo are building on DeFi, there is an “incredibly well-built infrastructure,” ETFs, and “growing concerns about fiat money.”

“So, yes, I’m hopeful. It’s not smooth sailing, but I’m happy for the ride.”

Previous Bear Markets Were Apocalyptic

The current bear market has seen total capital fall 49% from its peak of just under $4.4 billion in October to just under $2.23 billion in February. 6. This is less significant than previous bear markets, but it is not over yet. In 2018, the markets fell 88 percent, and in 2022, they fell nearly 73 percent from the peak of the previous cycle to bear markets.

The FTX crash of 2022 was “dark,” and 2018 was “borderline crypto extinction motion,” Kobeissi Letter notes. The March 2020 Covid crash was also apocalyptic, with markets plunging 56% in less than a month.

The difference in this, as pointed out by Hougan, is that the fundamentals of crypto are much stronger. Many analysts believe that the current market decline is not driven by crypto-native factors but by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.

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Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s crash hit $60,000 on Feb. 6 “put a lot of psychological pressure on the ‘hands of the diamond’ compared to the Luna crash of May 2022.”

“Simply put, long-term holders suffered huge losses – a rare change in judgment that is often seen in the deepest stages of bear markets.”

The recent drop to $60k put a lot of psychological pressure on the “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR dropped below 1 after trading 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term owners have seen the important… pic.twitter.com/xc6bXzwPYx

– glassnode (@glassnode) February 16, 2026

Long-Term Managers Still Benefit

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said on Monday that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders stood at 0.36, “which means that long-term holders are still profiting, on average, on average.”

“When NUPL Long-Term Holders go into negative territory, it means that even the most averse shareholders have suffered an impossible loss. Historically, this marks a period of great depression in the markets.”

In previous cycles, “this was the last stage before the start of a new bull game,” he said, noting that we are not there yet.

Bitcoin was trading around $68,000 at the time of writing after failing to rally around $70,000 on Monday.