$27.8B in Unrealized Losses Came to Bitcoin Self-Custody Managers as ETFs Lost $8.5B

The large ETF flight reflects the pressure on private wallets, suggesting that institutions and individuals are responding to the same pressures around the world now.

A small group of Bitcoin (BTC) holders who exercise a strong right to reserve are now sitting on a total unrealized loss of $27.89 billion, a figure that mirrors the liquidity hemorrhaging seen in the US institutional market, which has seen ETF exposure drop by two-thirds since late 2024.

The data shows that the sell-side pressure crushing Bitcoin is not just a Wall Street phenomenon but a systematic phenomenon that affects long-term believers in cold storage alike.

ETFs and On-Chain Hodlers Share the Same Red

According to a detailed on-chain analysis by GugaOnChain, addresses that hold between 10 and 10,000 BTC with UTXO aged 1 to 3 months face a reduction of -23.39%, which translates to about $ 28 billion in paper losses.

The group, which rejected centralized exchange deposits in favor of wallets, found itself in the same position as the institutional giants that trade CME futures and ETFs. The data shows that those products of the American center have spent $ 8.5 billion since October, with the presentation of the contract by two thirds from 2024. GugaOnChain believes that this combination of pressure confirms the theory that the market is “captive of the same blood,” whether it is a trading platform or a private space.

Unfortunately, nature at large suggests that relief is not at hand. Although the three pillars of support, namely accumulators (need 371,900 BTC), retail (add 6,384 BTC monthly), and miners (with an MPI of -1.11), managed to keep the cryptocurrency number one from a rapid fall, the analyst considers these as mere delays.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price data shows mixed performance over the different periods, with the asset trading just below $67,000 at the time of writing, down about 1% in 24 hours but up for the week. The broader trend remains negative, as the asset is down about 27% in 30 days and about 42% in six months per CoinGlass.

“Recovery? It depends on the price reaction to the above levels,” said GugaOnChain.

Whale Collecting Meets Commercial Skepticism

Despite widespread losses, the market is seeing a sharp divergence in behavior that adds complexity to the outlook. While short-selling demand has fallen sharply, with Alphractal data showing the 90-day net change in short-term holders falling rapidly, whales are treating the dip like a fire sale.

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According to CryptoQuant, whale holdings increased by nearly 200,000 BTC in the past month, rising from 2.9 million to over 3.1 million BTC. In addition, the statistical company noted that this accumulation rate was last seen during the correction of April 2025, just before Bitcoin’s rally from $76,000 to $126,000 ago. This suggests that while the “dumb money” may face fear, the “smart money” is preparing for the long term.