Ethereum is struggling to regain the $2,000 level, with ongoing selling pressure continuing to weigh on sentiment across the broader crypto market. Despite short-term recovery efforts, price action remains volatile as financial conditions tighten and investors reassess risk exposure following a sharp correction from the 2025 highs. The repeated failure to get sustained acceptance above this psychological threshold has strengthened the vigilance among both institutional participants and traders.
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The latest on-chain analysis highlights a significant structural development: Ethereum is currently trading below the valuation of all major whale groups. The earned value metric represents the average cost of acquiring funds held by a particular group, effectively serving as a proxy for the aggregate cost base. If rice falls below this level, then even large, historically strong owners are sitting on unaffordable losses.
Historically, such situations tend to be accompanied by late correction phases rather than early bullish expansions. The last comparable event followed the previous big cycle of Ethereum, especially in September 2018. That period marked a long consolidation phase where market consolidation was gradually absorbed before a new structural upswing emerged.
Ethereum Trades Below Whale Costs
Trading below whale prices also has psychological consequences. Large owners often operate with long investment horizons, and their profit cushions often help stabilize markets during corrections. When that cushion disappears, volatility can increase as confidence weakens and liquidity becomes more responsive to macro catalysts.
This does not necessarily mean immediate bullish reversal conditions. Rather, it indicates that the market may be undergoing a redistribution phase where weak hands exit while long-term investors reevaluate positions. Markets often require extended periods of stabilization after easing and bearish sentiment, especially following bullish cycles.
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At the same time, such places sometimes attract strategic gatherings. Investors willing to tolerate volatility may view low-price conditions as opportunities, especially if they are accompanied by lower rates and cooling speculative activity. Whether this volatility ultimately leads to further accumulation or loss depends largely on capital flows, regulatory developments, and the broader appetite for risk across financial markets.
Technology price outlook
From a technical perspective, the weekly chart underscores the current vulnerability of Ethereum. The price recently broke below the key moving averages that were acting as dynamic support. These averages now act as resistance zones, reducing momentum without being retraced. The recent decline to the $1,900–$2,000 region indicates a continuation of the broader correction structure that began after the mid-2025 peak.
Volume patterns suggest that participation is reduced compared to the impulsive meeting phase, indicating a reduction in speculative enthusiasm. However, the decline in volume during the correction may also indicate the exhaustion of aggressive sellers, which may set the stage for a base formation if demand stabilizes.
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Immediate support appears to be centered around recent lows in the mid-$1,800 area, while resistance remains clustered around the $2,200–$2,400 region where consolidation occurred earlier. A sustained move above these levels will be needed to shift the short-term momentum in a definitive manner. On the other hand, failure to hold current support could expose Ethereum to deep retracement levels associated with broader market declines.
At the moment, Ethereum remains at the crossroads of technology and logic. Trading under whale prices realized prices, struggling under major resistance levels, and navigating large uncertainties combined to define a market that sought to balance rather than enter a guaranteed recovery phase.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
