Markets are quiet and uncomfortable. Bitcoin prices have retreated, and major holders are keeping a cool face while the charts move. Reports note that one outspoken investor puts the market in stark terms: it could either fail completely or be more valuable than people currently think.
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Saylor’s binary bet
According to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin has only two tangible end results: worthless, or worth $1 million per coin. That’s not a quick business idea. A long-held view about scarcity and need.
Saylor argues that consistent supply coupled with growing institutional buying and extensive storage tools make the future of big price gains possible. He points to more banks, more ETFs and larger corporate shares as evidence that demand has grown.
If it doesn’t go to zero, it will go to a million. $BTC
– Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 20, 2026
A Warning From Another Side
Reports note that not everyone agrees. Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone has drawn a bleak path, where price pressures and major shocks could send prices down sharply — even to $10,000.
That view is based on history: markets can fall far before confidence returns. Temporary movements may be abusive. Long shifts may slow recovery. Both theories are true on their own terms, because they answer different questions about time and risk.
Balance Sheet and Funding
Based on reports, the company that supports Saylor’s position has taken the largest share: 717,131 BTC was bought with an estimated value of 76,027 coins. That position is currently under water. However, the choice of funds is important. The strategy relies on equity, convertible notes, and preferred stocks to meet capital requirements.
Arkham Intelligence pointed out that the preferred shares are preferred and redemptions are not automatic, which reduces the chance of a forced sale immediately. That setup buys time, although it doesn’t eliminate exposure if prices stay low for a long time.
SAYLOR UNDERWATER. BUT WILL YOU SELL BTC?
Saylor is more than 10% underwater from its average purchase price. But what exactly would compel him to sell Bitcoin?
Here’s how, when and why a Strategy may be forced to sell BTC. pic.twitter.com/uKbJ3ivO54
– Arkham (@arkham) February 20, 2026
Supply, Demand and Big Numbers
Saylor’s $1 million guess is driven by a supply crunch: there are only 21 million coins. If enough institutions and wealth continue to buy, statistics push the price up.
He said that for a portion of the total coins held by his company, the values could run into the millions, and he has mapped out a very high possibility, of $10 million under strong focus conditions.
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Those are not predictions that you can take as short-term goals. Conditional models – only possible if acquisition, regulation and market behavior are all consistent over time.
The way forward is not easy. Bitcoin can crawl, stumble and trade in small increments for years, or shoot up as new buyers enter. Politics, regulatory systems and global finance will change which path is taken. Institutionalization has changed the structure of the market, but it has not eliminated the risk of a major drawdown.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
