US Strikes in Iran Spark Debate Over Bitcoin Hashrate and Market Stability

Some observers have noted that even if Iran were to control 5% of the global hashrate, the network would continue to operate without interruption.

Bitcoin mining in Iran returned to the spotlight after the post of the X virus on February 27 that the country is running a $ 1 billion project that cannot be completed.

The debate has divided crypto watchers, with some warning of a short-term hashrate shock and others dismissing the claims as exaggerated fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).

Iran’s Mining Footprint and Strike Status

The discussion began when independent analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera posted that Iran is mining Bitcoin at an estimated cost of $1,320 per BTC using heavily subsidized electricity and then selling it at the current price near $68,000 for what he describes as a 50x capital gain.

He pointed out that about 700,000 mining operations consume about 2,000 megawatts per day, most of which are related to operations linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC.

Perera tied the dispute to sanctions, saying that Bitcoin allows Iran to convert restricted energy resources into liquid currency without reaching SWIFT restrictions.

A January 16 report by Chainalysis found that Iran’s total crypto business will exceed $7.78 billion by 2025. In addition, the report said that addresses connected to the IRGC’s aid networks received more than $3 billion last year, up from $2 billion in 2024, and that activity tends to increase during military or political crises.

Still, critics quickly challenged the mining cost projections, with analyst Dasha calling the $1,320 figure “100% fake news,” saying it’s dependent on domestic electricity levels that are unrealizable due to blackouts and shortages.

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Hashrate Shocks are not new

The objections did not end there, as miner ZynxBTC completely dismissed these concerns:

“Even if Iran were to control 5% of the global hashrate (it is), and not be connected to the internet, the network would continue to function normally.”

Recent events in the US support that argument. Earlier this year, the network continued to operate even after a severe winter storm forced major Texas miners offline, dropping the hashrate from 1.133 ZH/s to 690 EH/s in just a few days.

However, Perera argued that grid failure is different from voluntary shutdowns. According to his analysis, as tensions rise in the Middle East, a 7- to 10-day air campaign targeting Iran’s military infrastructure could disrupt electricity production by an estimated 30% to 50%.

He emphasized that mining rigs require continuous electricity, and even a short outage can destroy efficient operations. Therefore, he pointed out that a strike on Iran’s already fragile grid could see the country’s estimated 2% to 5% share drop to zero within days, beginning to address the difficulties that would add blackout times and temporarily spike fees. As CryptoPotato reported, the US and Israel have already launched strikes on Iran earlier today.

Still, some argue that the Bitcoin network has withstood an even bigger shock, with researcher Furkan Yildirim noting that China has removed more than half of the world’s hashrate by 2021, yet the network quickly adjusted as miners moved.

“Iran’s grid failure would be a big mistake by comparison,” he tweeted.