Bitcoin has it reacted as expected the conflict between the United States and Iran, continuing a pattern that has always emerged during the rise of the former country. Crypto prices are digesting recent developments, and analysts compare the current price structure with the same periods in 2022 and 2023, when Bitcoin began to sell off before experiencing a strong recovery.
War Heads And 20%-40% Rally Pattern.
Recent geopolitical conflicts it comes at an already fragile time for the crypto market. Bitcoin is already down 48% from its highs and is on track to close its fifth monthly red candle. The leading cryptocurrency also recorded its worst start to the first two months of the year, down 24% since January. February closed 14.8% below its opening, making it the third-worst February in the history of Bitcoin. The only weak February was in 2025, when Bitcoin closed 17.5% below its opening and in 2014, when the month’s closing was 33% below its opening.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows share the weekly chart showing how Bitcoin has behaved during previous highs. In February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Bitcoin fell before rallying around 40% in the following months. In June 2025, after Israel attacked Iran, Bitcoin was first sold again, but later gained about 25%.
Now, following the US strikes on Iran on Saturday, Bitcoin has reacted lower again. The question raised by Pillows is whether the same pattern of post-shock recovery will play out again.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TedPillows On X
Another commentator, Sherlock, focuses on short-term responses. He noted that during previous US or Israeli strikes on Iran, Bitcoin often fell sharply over the weekend and recovered within 24 to 48 hours.
In April 2024, after Iran attacked Israel, Bitcoin dropped 8% overnight and recovered within two days. In October 2024, the 3% decline was erased within 24 hours.
In June 2025, US strikes led to a 6% decline found on Sunday, followed by a 62% rally over the next two months to a record high in October. Interestingly, the first decline in each case occurred before the regular financial markets reopened.
The Market Is Already Deeply Corrected
It is important to note that the current setup is different than the previous episodes because Bitcoin was already in a strong position during the 2025 world shock. Today’s market structure looks very different, like Bitcoin has been a drag for a long time five months.
Weekly RSI for Bitcoin right now at the lowest level in its history. The Fear & Greed Index is also in extreme fear for 22 days in a row. In addition, the proposed positions have been significantly reduced, by open interest in lower studies.
The panic selling in previous cases followed the geopolitical event itself. However, in this case, forced sales and devaluations appear to have occurred before the strike. Based on this warning, the weak hands are already out and the extra strength has already been cleared. Therefore, Bitcoin may not be able to support the bottom for a long time from the tension and may stabilize faster than the previous episodes.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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