The renter’s trap: Why saving for a home is difficult

Tenants may be paying more on their mortgage each month in 2034, as rising taxes destroy savings deposits and widen the road to home ownership.

New modeling by PropTrack shows that renting is on track to outpace mortgage payments on the average Brisbane home within the next decade, reducing the monthly gap and piling pressure on state renters even though interest rates remain high.

At today’s lenders rate of 5.75 per cent, Brisbane’s average rent of around $2,817 a month sits $1,422 below the median mortgage payment of around $4,239. That gap was expected to close by March 2034, when the weekly rent reached $976.

New modeling shows that renters will pay more on their mortgages within ten years

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If rates increase to 6.1 percent, payments rise to about $4,402 and the crossover extends to December 2034 (weekly rent: $1,013).

For households trying to save, the current monthly barrier between renting and owning at about $1,422 is being removed as rents continue to rise.

PropTrack data took Brisbane’s median purchase price at $908,000 with a 20 per cent deposit on a 30-principal-interest mortgage.

Payments do not include ownership costs such as council rates, maintenance and maintenance, while rents are calculated at a 10-year monthly rate.

The analysis reveals a catch-22 rate for renters, where monthly costs continue to rise along with house prices, making it harder than ever to save a house deposit.

Ray White Group chief economist, Nerida Conisbee. Image: Provided

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Ray White Economist Nerida Conisbee said affordability is at its weakest level in years, with deposits taking longer to build and lending stretching household budgets.

“Home ownership rates are falling, particularly among young Australians, and affordability pressures are a clear driver of that trend,” Ms Conisbee said.

“For many buyers, the deposit is the biggest roadblock. Rents are going up and saving is getting harder.”

He said demand has shifted to the entry-level stock and unit market, as buyers trade space for a base.

“Government schemes can shave years off the deposit barrier – they don’t make homes cheaper, but they change the way people get in.”

Brisbane buyers agent Lauren Jones

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Brisbane consumer agent Lauren Jones said the next 12-24 months could provide an opportunity for dual income earners to reap benefits.

“Five per cent has become the norm, but the payout is much higher compared to a 20 per cent deposit,” said Ms Jones.

Ms Jones pointed to strong price growth over the next year and warned that delays could cost consumers more than they save.

It comes as Queensland records the country’s strongest rise in housing demand, with inquiries rising 17 per cent year-on-year to Q4 2025, according to Equifax.

“This is significant growth in demand for housing, and a level of activity that we haven’t seen in almost five years,” said Equifax Australia chief solutions officer Kevin James.

Equifax CEO Kevin James

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ABS data shows that first home buyer loan commitments rose by 6.8 per cent in the December 2025 quarter to 31,783 loans, up 9.1 per cent on the year.

Newlyweds James and Tess Wootton say making the jump from renters to first-time homeowners has given them a great start to their life together.

The Brisbane 20-somethings have renovated their two-bedroom townhouse and are preparing to upgrade to a bigger property before starting a family.

Mr Wootton, a construction project manager, paid $480,000 for the Moorooka property in August 2023.

He was able to save a deposit of close to $100,000 while living in his parents’ house, paying them $250 a week.

Newlyweds James and Tess Wootton are preparing to sell their first home, a townhouse they have renovated in Marooka. Photo: Liam Kidston

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“I was lucky that they were happy to keep me for a few years, knowing that the main goal was to save for that first home,” said Mr Wootton.

“It was much cheaper for me to stay and give up my social life to save for three to four years, than to go out and rent, which is a big challenge for young people trying to save these days.”

Their townhouse has been on the market since March 18 with Place Bulimba.

Place Bulimba selling agent Jaymee Gilbert noted an increase in the number of units as owners responded to the sought-after centre.

“Units and townhouses close to the city provide opportunities for first-time buyers to enter the market and find equity,” she said.

“It may not be their forever home, but I would say that if you can own property and pay it off, that’s always better than paying off someone else’s loan.”

Brisbane units are in high demand

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Tailored Buyers Agents founder Amelia Reddiex said the city’s hot market is forcing first-timers to make decisions they may regret.

“When markets are hot, it’s easy to make the wrong compromise to secure a property at a price that sounds like a bargain, but real estate is rarely cheap,” said Ms. Reddiex.

He advised targeting “bridesmaid” suburbs near blue postcodes, recommending older blocks of flats with low corporate costs, and avoiding one-bedroom flats, which are likely to fluctuate when resold.

Tailored Buyers Agents founder Amelia Reddiex

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Ms Reddiex also flagged rental investing as a viable option for net worth buyers.

“You can’t save the market.

“Every month if you delay, the prices go up,” he said.

Mrs. Jones said that the city’s one-room market has become more popular than any other.

“I’ve seen 55-plus groups at these open houses recently.”

In every major city, PropTrack’s intersection where mortgages are cheaper than rents is coming soon to markets with rapidly rising rents.

Perth turns first, in December 2029 at 5.75 per cent, followed by Hobart in August 2031, then Adelaide, in February 2033.

Brisbane’s cross is ahead of Canberra in July 2034, and Melbourne (June 2035), while Sydney ends in December 2038.