Is Bitcoin (BTC) Already Down This Cycle?

Most of the responses we received were promising BTC. Here is the most interesting part.

Bitcoin price has fallen from its October 2025 high of over $126,000 to $60,000 in early February, posting a massive 52% drop. This puts the asset in a bear market, at least according to many analysts, many of whom are beginning to predict an even more painful decline for BTC.

The situation worsened as Israel and the USA went directly to war last week against Iran, and the cryptocurrency quickly fell to its lowest point. However, it reversed its course in the following days and reached a monthly high of $74,000.

Although it failed there, it is still trading around $70,000 right now, which is more than 15% higher than its low in early February. The question we decided to ask Gemini and ChatGPT is whether they believe that BTC has already gone down during this cycle.

Below?

ChatGPT began by admitting that such a 50%+ decline is “very typical of a Bitcoin bull cycle correction,” and does not necessarily mean that the asset is in the deepest phase of a bear market. In fact, it noted that the $60,000 low “is historically equivalent to a typical mid-cycle shakeout.”

It put the probability of the bottom at 45%, which would mean that the early February crash was the final capitulation flush. Some of the reasons that support this narrative include the completion of 50% repairs, the improvement of finances and general sentiment, and the increase of strong buyers at those levels.

If this was indeed the bottom of BTC, the next stages will be a rise to $90,000 before it breaks the psychological level of $100,000. Then follows the “parabolic phase.” Its bold prediction here will be a big run of upside between $180,000 and $220,000 this year.

Gemini also broadly acknowledged that lows may be in the offing, suggesting that there are already a few crashes, and added:

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“On that February low, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators and distance from the 200-day moving average reached oversold levels not seen since the bear market of 2022 or the collapse of FTX. The selling pressure simply exhausted itself.”

Not Down, Not Yet

While both AIs suggest that the most likely scenario is that BTC has already broken out, they leave the door open for another correction, especially if the main situation turns negative.

Gemini said investors have been pulling out of speculative technology stocks, lingering inflation issues, and geopolitical tensions, which mean the broader center of appetite for risk assets is “faltering.”

ChatGPT gave a 20% chance of a “one-stop” scenario, where the bears regain control of the market and propel the leading cryptocurrency to a new low somewhere between $48,000 and $52,000. However, it noted that there is very little chance of extreme panic going up to $42,000 but “such a move could be temporary.”