Bitcoin Supply Pressure Builds As Short-Term Holders See Losses Below $70K
Bitcoin continues to struggle for the $70,000 level as volatility continues throughout the cryptocurrency market. After several attempts to recover from recent declines, price action remains fragile, reflecting a market environment where investors are still processing large positions and weak momentum. As Bitcoin trades near the mid-range of $60,000, on-chain indicators suggest that selling pressure from short-term participants remains an important factor influencing the market structure.
According to the analysis shared by the on-chain analyst Axel Adler, the latest data shows that short-term holders continue to experience losses at a constant pace. The Bitcoin Short-Term Short-Term Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has remained below the 1.0 neutral threshold for seven of the last eight days. This metric compares the selling price of newly traded coins to their original purchase price, meaning a reading below 1.0 indicates that investors are selling at a loss.
Between March 2 and March 9, the STH SOPR exceeded 1.0 only once, briefly on March 4 when Bitcoin touched around $70,800. During the entire period, the index remained in a loss-sold zone, with a weekly low recorded at 0.979 on March 6. As of March 9, the intraday average is close to 0.987, confirming the continued selling pressure among new market entrants.
Short Term Owner Offer Continues Contract
The report also highlights important developments in the behavior of short-term holders of Bitcoin, particularly with changes in the Short-Term Holder Supply (STH) metric. This indicator measures the total amount of BTC held by investors with coins less than 155 days old, providing insight into the activity of active market participants.
In the past two weeks, the supply of STH has decreased significantly, dropping from about 6.06 million BTC to about 5.92 million BTC. This represents a reduction of approximately 140,000 BTC in the group, indicating that a significant number of coins have been sold or converted to longer holding periods. At the same time, the realized price of this group remains close to $89,028, while the market price of Bitcoin trades close to $67,175.
This estimated gap of 24% highlights the extent of the unrealized losses currently affecting short-term holders. Such situations often create psychological stress, as investors who enter the market at high prices face long periods of negative returns.
A decline in STH Supply can reflect two similar processes. In some cases, it represents surrender as investors sell at a loss. In others, it reflects the natural maturation of coins into long-term holding categories. However, the large difference between the realized price and the market price suggests that there may be oversupply, as some owners may sell during the upcoming rallies to exit positions without losses.
Bitcoin Holds $67K After Sharp Correction From Cycle Highs
The 3-day chart shows Bitcoin trading near the $67,800 region after a sharp correction from the end of 2025 high above $120,000. The market structure changed decisively in early 2026 when BTC lost momentum near the $110,000–$115,000 range and began making a series of lower highs. This change showed a weak trend and caused an accelerated decline when the price fell below the 50-time moving average (blue).
Selling pressure intensified during the first quarter of 2026, pushing Bitcoin quickly past the 100-period moving average (green). The breakout ensured a broad swing towards the correction phase and ultimately pushed BTC towards the $62,000–65,000 support zone before buyers intervened to stabilize the price action.
Currently, Bitcoin is trying to rally between $65,000 and $70,000, a range that now represents an important short-term balancing point. The 200-period moving average (red), located around the $88,000 region, remains well above the current price and serves as a major resistance level that the bulls will need again to restore strong long-term momentum.
Volume activity has increased during the recent decline, suggesting that the correction involves a large distribution. For Bitcoin to reestablish a bullish formation, the price may need to retake the $70,000–$75,000 range and bring back the short-term moving averages.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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