Bitcoin’s Leverage Ratio Drops Deeply

The excess profits in the crypto markets have almost disappeared which could lead to a market recovery based on a healthy environment, say analysts.

Global tensions, especially the conflict between Iran and the US, have disrupted crypto markets and pushed investors away from taking risks.

“Times like these usually don’t allow for risk-taking, and this can be clearly seen in the sharp drop in Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance,” said CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost on Monday.

The metric measures the intensity with which investors are leveraging and is calculated by comparing the future Open Interest (OI) to the amount of BTC reserves held in the exchange. Since February, this ratio has dropped significantly from 0.198 to 0.152 – matching Bitcoin’s drop from $96,000 to $69,000.

A Healthier Market Dynamic

If the ratio remains low while Bitcoin is rallying, it probably indicates that buying positions instead of strong speculation is becoming the main price driver, which is often a healthy volatility.

“A lower rate usually means less systemic stress, which can help stabilize price action before the market enters a new directional phase.”

🗞️Bitcoin regains power to reset after market volatility

“Since February, Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has decreased from 0.198 to 0.152, indicating a significant and rapid decline. This type of movement is often seen after periods of strong and large volatility… pic.twitter.com/q1MVOR5CZa

– Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 9, 2026

In another post, CryptoQuant analyst “IT tech” said “down callers are increasing.” One metric recently hit 29 consecutive days in depressed territory, they added, highlighting the SOPR ratio of long-term owner to short-term owner, which is at 0.89.

“Latest buyers are underwater. LTHs are not selling, but they are not sucking either. STH capitulation building, but nowhere near as close. Calling it a building decline here is premature.”

Meanwhile, Glassnode reported Monday that momentum is “moderately strong,” with the RSI rising from recent lows, “but price action lacks the potential for a significant bullish shift.”

“Spot activity remains subdued, with low trading volume pointing to softer participation as conditions begin to stabilize.”

Crypto Market Outlook

Spot markets rose 4.3% on the day to reach $2.46 trillion in a move that followed US President Trump’s comments that the war with Iran could “end soon.” Bitcoin regained $70,000 in early trading in Asia on Tuesday as oil prices fell 28% from Monday’s high of $120.

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Ether remained weak, but was holding above the $2,000 level at the time of writing. Meanwhile, other altcoins were seeing big gains, including Hyperliquid and Zcash, which rose more than 11% each.