Arthur Hayes makes a sure bet on Hyperliquid, arguing with a new article that HYPE could rise to $150 in August 2026 even if the broader crypto base remains weak. His case is based on a standard exchange token playbook, but updated for a market where isolated perps, not centralized locations, increasingly control the most important trade flows.
Why Hayes Thinks Hyperliquid Could Reach $150
Hayes lists Hyperliquid as an outstanding asset in a sluggish or marginal market because the exchange can end up generating payouts regardless of rising prices. According to him, that is very important for Hyperliquid because 97% of the income of the protocol is used to return HYPE to the market. “Hyperliquid, the leading perp DEX, is the largest non-stablecoin monetization project,” he wrote. “There is no other project in all crypto hands as much money returned to token holders as Hyperliquid.”
His target implies about a 5x move from around $30 at the time of writing. To get there, Hayes says Hyperliquid will need to increase its 30-day annual revenue to $1.4 billion, a level he said the platform reached last August. His model also assumes that the market will value the token from about 12 times earnings to about 25.2 times, still below or near the range he quotes on major traditional exchanges.
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A big part of the thesis is that Hyperliquid doesn’t need an overall increase in crypto activity to grow. It only needs to continue taking the share from the central exchange. Hayes says a 3.97 percent increase in market share would be enough for Hyperliquid to return to that $1.4 billion annual revenue operating level.
The engine for that next leg, in his view, is the HIP-3, the flagship of Hyperliquid’s permanent lineup. Users involved in 500,000 HYPE can initiate markets using the matching engine and platform margin, and Hayes points to early moves in silver, gold, Nasdaq 100 and S & P 500. “In just four months, HIP-3 volumes comprise about 10% of Hyperliquid’s total revenue,” he wrote. “Permissive listing has always been the holy grail of DEXs, and the rapid growth in trading volumes proves that this is how Hyperliquid will differentiate itself from the pack.”
That’s why his model assumes HIP-3 revenue increases by 160% within six months. He also flags HIP-4, which he says should enable unlicensed prediction markets, such as a potential high kicker not included in the base case.
Competition is the main objection that Hayes is trying to eliminate. He argues that topic volumes on all perp DEXs can be distorted by clock trading, point farming and other incentives, making raw volume a poor measure of actual usage.
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The metric he chooses is ADV-to-OI, or the ratio of daily volume relative to open interest, because open interest requires real money to be posted. On that basis, he says Hyperliquid has the most “real” volume among the top five DEXs. He also says that Bitcoin perps’ order book summaries showed that Hyperliquid was often the cheapest place to size once liquidity was included.
Hayes also exploits the timing of the token supply, another problem that caused him to become technically inebriated late last year. He notes that the team distributed close to 20% of the tokens issued in November and December, but only about 1% in January and February. “With that out of the way, the team has greatly reduced distribution to help HYPE rebound,” he wrote, while admitting that the piece is speculative.
Even his stress case is always positive. Hayes says that if the market only pays 12x more earnings and the team receives HYPE of 9.91 million per month, but the income still returns to $ 1.4 billion per year, the token will still be $ 58, or about 75% above the current levels.
At press time, HYPE traded at $33.237.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
