Bitcoin LTH Supply Near Record Highs Despite Pullback From Peak

Bitcoin heating indicators remain moderate compared to the peaks of the previous market cycle.

LTH’s LTH Realized Supply stood at 8.05 million BTC as of March 11, 2026, representing a decrease of about 5.5% from the cycle high of 8,529,671 BTC recorded on March 8, 2026, when the asset traded at $65,974s, and reached Z.20core metric’s

During the latest study, the Z-score dropped to 2.66.

Compressed Cycle

According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., despite the recent pullback, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders at this point in the cycle remains historically high. Compared to previous cycles at the same halving stage, day 691 after the split, the current cycle shows a much larger catch.

In fact, the total number of coins held by long-term holders was found to be 1.52 times higher than the 2020 cycle and almost 3.4 times higher than the 2016 cycle at equal points. Adler explained that the current Z-score of 2.66 is very similar to the 2016 cycle reading of 2.94 for the same stage. In the 2016 half-year drawdown cycle, this period saw the first phase of the final redistribution period, which continued for about another 200 days before the metric reached its all-time high in December 2018.

On the other hand, the 2020 cycle showed a very different structure at the same time. On the 691st day following the decline in that cycle, the Z-score was only 1.08, indicating the end of the bear market following the collapse of Terra/LUNA, and LTH Realized Supply was already down from its eight-month high.

Adler also tested the MA365 average, which currently stands at 1.595 in an ongoing cycle. This rate is lower than the equivalent rate in the 2016 cycle, which was 2.523, and slightly higher than the 2020 cycle value of 1.502. According to the analyst, this means that the excess temperature relative to the one-year moving average remains limited.

In previous cycles, the final peaks of Complete LTH supply occurred between 880 and 912 days after ovulation, approximately 190 to 220 days later than the current point in the cycle. In those cycles, the Z-score eventually increased to between 4.24 and 4.94 before reaching a peak. If the current cycle follows the same timeline, Adler said the current high can only represent an intermediate high rather than a recent one.

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Accumulation Loses Momentum

However, he also pointed out that the current cycle is structurally different from the previous one because the institutional entry into the Bitcoin ETF has locked up a large number of coins, thus reducing the share of supply available for active circulation and potentially accelerating the accumulation process among long-term holders.

There has also been a decline in accumulation momentum, with the 30-day rate of change currently at +7.6%, well below levels seen in comparable periods of previous cycles, where the metric increased by 87% in 2016 and 51.6% in 2020. According to the analyst, the strong growth rate following the growth phase may suggest a decline in the market accumulation seen in January and February 2026.