The current structure of Bitcoin may unfold in a similar way to the revolution that led to it 2022 is a bear market. Chart shared by an analyst at X highlights several technical signals that appeared during the 2021-2022 transition and are now appearing again in 2026. According to the comparison, the market may still face more. downward phase before the lower clear forms.
Bitcoin Loses 50-Week SMA Signals Structural Shift
During the previous cycle, Bitcoin reached a peak in 2021 before ending fall below the 50-week moving average (SMA). That decline marked a change in the broader market structure. After losing the level, the price entered a short consolidation phase where the rally briefly advanced, but the recovery failed to restore the lost structure. The weakness eventually extended into a prolonged decline that defined the 2022 bear market.
A similar sequence is now being seen following the peak of the 2026 cycle. According to @_cryptflow_ on X, Bitcoin recently moved below the 50-week SMA after climbing higher at the beginning of the cycle. This indicator has served as a major dividing line historically continued bullish momentum and broad declines, meaning that its losses often signal changes in fundamental market forces.
The chart also shows the same reaction after the split. In both cycles, the price stabilizes for a while after slipping below the moving average once try to recover. However, those rebounds failed to regain the lost momentum, leaving the broad downward trend intact.
This phase is indicated on the chart by a combination box that forms after a break below the 50-week SMA. The area represents the stage of the relief rally where the price tries to stabilize but struggling to regain momentum. In the previous cycle, that temporary stability was followed by another significant decline, suggesting that the current structure may be similarly volatile.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Signals Bear Market Shift
Beyond the price structure, the chart also highlights the behavior of the RSI. During the previous market reversal, the drop of the RSI below the 45 level marked the beginning of a bearish continuation phase, which separates the bearish momentum a period of prolonged weakness.
The same pattern is emerging again, with the chart showing the RSI recently falling below the 45 level, echoing the bearish momentum that preceded the 2022 extended decline. This change suggests that underlying market forces may already be weakening as conditions move away from the bullish territory that characterizes the earlier phase of the cycle.
The RSI chart also has a a downward trendline that has repeatedly held momentum since the height of the cycle. Several exit attempts occurred during the final bull phase, but each ultimately failed before the momentum was reversed. Similar failed exit attempts are being seen in the current cycle.
If the broader structure continues to display the previous template, the chart suggests that Bitcoin may still have it the other leg facing down before plain lower forms. Although the cycles rarely repeat themselves, the comparison highlights how similar momentum fluctuations and structural differences have been. historically preceded deep market corrections.
The featured image was created with Dall.E, a chart from Tradingview.com
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