XRP is in a compression phase instead of a breakout, according to analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, who says the most important chart bullet is now at $2.20. In a letter published on Friday, he said restoring that level would mark the point at which the current framework turns constructive again.
EGRAG’s analysis is based on the monthly chart of XRP and, in particular, the 21-period moving average. “I keep repeating this: I don’t predict the future. I read charts, study cycles, and use indicators,” he wrote, including the setup less as a directional call than a market structure reading. “Right now the 21 EMA is key.”
What This Means for XRP Price
On his chart, that 21 yellow EMA has served as an intermediate reference for most of XRP’s cycles. The latest monthly candles show the price falling below that line after a sharp rally, then entering what he describes as a “decline of pressure / channel collapse.” He paired that with other key observations: “Price lost 21 EMA,” “formed bearish pressure / channel collapse,” and “rejected at $2.20 major.” His conclusion from that combination was blunt: “This is not a crash site.”
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That distinction is the core of the thesis. Rather than reading the recent decline as broader, EGRAG says the behavior of the candle points to a controlled pullback. “Look at the candles: shrinking bodies, low pressure, controlled returns,” he wrote. “That’s seller fatigue, not a crash.”
The chart supports that visual learning. The candles on the right side of the structure are smaller than the time of the previous move, and the decline seems to contain more than a rush. Falling yellow guide lines drawn in recent price action indicate a descending channel instead of a vertical retracement. Physically, the setup looks like pressure in the decision area, not a complete failure of the structure.
EGRAG then outlined two possible routes from here. The first is what he calls “Liquidity Sweep First,” meaning “the last sweep is $0.80-$1.00.” In his words, that situation would show “a measured wedge & liquidity movement below,” suggesting that XRP could still dip into the lower part of the structure before any broader reversal attempt.
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The second method is the immediate bullish method. The “Quickest Recovery,” he wrote, will come “when XRP re-claims $1.65–$1.80,” at which point “the structure changes again.” That retracement point is important because it will indicate that pressure has failed to generate follow-through to the bottom and that buyers are regaining control before a deep swing.
However, the most important chart level is sitting at the top. EGRAG clarifies on that point: “The $2.20 Everything Change Rate: Regain that rate and the expansion phase is active again.” He followed that with the road above you: “Next goals: $2.20 re-claim, $2.50 re-check.”
That puts $2.20 above the nearest resistance band. In this reading, it is the macro pivot that separates the unresolved correction from the renewed expansion phase. The analyst has already identified as the point where XRP declined earlier, so the move back above will not only restore the lost ground; it would make sense that the market remains stuck below the failed exit zone.
For now, however, his message is that the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. “Until then…This is suppression, not stalking,” EGRAG wrote. “Structure > Sound.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.41.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
