Mortgage application data
2026 had the best start to buying app data in years, the multi-year high in this index was last seen in early 2023, when prices reached 5.99% before rising to 8% later that year. However, this year, conditions are markedly different for mortgage rates: The Fed has already cut rates starting in 2023 and mortgage spreads have returned to normal. I was expecting a bigger hit from this data because prices rose a lot last week and a major winter storm affected two-thirds of the country, but we didn’t see much that was interesting: shopping apps were down 0.4% week-over-week and up 18% year-over-year.
These applications usually lead to sales data for 30 to 90 days. Here’s 2026 so far:
- 2 positive results from week to week
- 0 weekly negative prints
- 1 weekly flat print
- 3 weeks of double digit growth year over year
Weekly pending sales
Weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week overview, although results may be affected by holidays and seasonal fluctuations. Last week also showed good week-on-week and year-on-year growth. I was very scared growing up here. Our pending weekly sales are very sensitive to holiday and weather related impacts, but it’s still a good week. These figures usually appear in the existing real estate sales report 30 to 60 days after the pending recordation.
Weekly pending sales for the previous week over the past few years:
- 2026: 57,865
- 2025: 56,270
10-year yield and housing rates
In HousingWire’s forecast for 2026, I expect the following range:
- Loan rates are between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
We’ve had a lot of economic drama lately, and the 10-year yield and the 30-year mortgage rate have done very little. There was little movement in mortgage rates despite last week’s Fed meeting and the announcement of a new Fed chairman. Much of this stability is due to spreads that are now close to normal. The 10-year yield was still close to a monthly high last week.
Mortgage rates were lower this week, ending at 6.16%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Given the events of the past week, it has been a very cold week. Mortgage rate lock data from Polly shows a weekend rate of 6.27%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage rates have remained stable in part because mortgage spreads have improved significantly, particularly earlier this year. Better mortgage spreads were the most important issue in 2025, and that trend continues in 2026.
Historically, mortgage spreads have varied from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spread closed at 1.86%. If spreads match 2023 highs, mortgage rates would be 1.25 percentage points higher, at 7.41%. As spreads return to normal, mortgage rates may remain lower for longer than in previous years.
Weekly housing inventory data
Real estate growth over the past few years has been the best story in the real estate market; created a balanced and healthy market environment. At one point last year, inventory growth was running at 33% year-on-year, but after mid-June, the growth rate slowed significantly as demand picked up. That said, we’re still seeing good year-over-year inventory growth.
- Weekly inventory change: (Jan. 23-Jan. 30): Inventory decreased from 697,868 to 696,222
- The same week last year: (Jan. 24-Jan. 31): Inventory fell from 635,529 to 634,936
New listing data
New listing data for 2026 was encouraging, even down from last week. We want to get this line up to over 80,000 at the peak of the season and show some growth, as most home sellers are buyers as well. In a typical market, we would be seeing 80,000 to 100,000 new listings per week during the peak months of the season. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here is the last week’s listing data for the past two years:
- 2026: 48,415
- 2025: 48,883
Discount percentages
In general, about one-third of homes are down in value, reflecting the volatile nature of the housing market. As mortgage and property prices rise together, the percentage of the amortization will increase. However, rates are near multi-year lows, so what’s going on with our discount percentage data now? After a very long time, we saw our first slight year-over-year decline in our percentage discount data, which is not surprising given that inventory growth has slowed and demand is high.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
Next week: Jobs week!
It’s that time again: job week! Well, my belief has always been that the soft labor market was the main reason that mortgage rates went down last year, so we have to look at all the labor data that comes out this week and how the bond market reacts to it. The most important line of labor data for me is jobless claims, which remain historically low.
This week we will also have ISM data and Fed speeches, but it will be about jobs and the bond market’s reaction to it.
