Bitcoin slipped sharply over the weekend, falling below $76,000 in light trading and briefly entering the $75,000 area as selling accelerated late Saturday and Sunday. This move pushed BTC to an area that expert Aksel Kibar has identified as a key band of horizontal support, roughly between $73.7K and $76.5K.
The move didn’t just happen. The major markets were already in a forced risk-on mode, with violent sales of precious metals feeding strong power transmissions, exactly the kind of tape that could increase the volatility of the weekend when money purchases slow down and stop levels being tested.
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Kibar, a Chartered Market expert and founder of Tech Charts LLC, said in a series of posts on X that he’s watching $73.7K and $76.5K closely, but doesn’t treat it as an automatic green light for the long term. His message to traders: price access support is an area, not a signal, and the difference is very important when trying to avoid catching a falling knife.
In several posts dated Jan. 30 and Feb. 1 said his process is based on classic chart patterns rather than “guessing” the bottom. “Reaching a support zone is not just a classic chart pattern buy signal,” he wrote. “We need to see a bullish reversal chart pattern forming in support areas. But trading strategies are different. You may have a different way to take advantage of recent price action.”
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Kibar positioned the current range as an area where a low could form, but stressed that his approach is to wait for a structure, especially a reversal structure that changes the profile of the issues. On Jan. 30 stated why he won’t chase a level just because it’s on the map.
“I’m not serious about getting support because I’m not trying to catch a falling knife,” he wrote. “I love getting the reverse pattern bottom. Double bottom. IH&S bottom. I’ll always miss the boat when it turns into a V.”
That trade-off is deliberate, he adds, and is part of knowing your limitations: “It’s important to know your strengths and weaknesses.”
In a separate post, Kibar linked the concept of a “base structure” to a concrete starter: an output of more than $91.2K, which he described as the low-end finish point he had previously mentioned. “When I say we need a basic structure, some kind of classic chart pattern (preferably with horizontal borders), I’m referring to the break above 91.2K (the completion of the double bottom),” he wrote, adding that the confirmation “is even more important because we are below the long-term average,” before “submitting it for interpretation.”
Kibar’s post also harkened back to a common psychological trap in low calling: confusing caution and fear. Responding to an X user who suggested he sounded cheap but hesitated to “call” to avoid making a mistake, Kibar agreed to the setup but sharpened the motivation.
“Everything is fine,” he replied. “Besides, I don’t want to be wrong but to have high faith. We can’t do things in the market for fear of making a mistake.”
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That distinction is important because it explains why his framework requires tangible evidence that consumers are entering, rather than a single level that automatically holds. When one user asked if Bitcoin could make a possible head-and-shoulders bottom, Kibar wasted no time: “It’s too early to start thinking about this.”
In his latest review, Kibar described the types of behavior that, in his opinion, can indicate an emerging need for support. Instead of treating it like a checklist, he framed it as “signals” that would show buyers that they are willing to protect a position: pickup in activity and volatility, candlesticks that show rejection (like doji-like structures with long lower bars) and short-term reversal structures like double bottoms or head and shoulders bottoms.
Kibar also presented a point of market structure that he learned while managing a large fund in the United Arab Emirates: “If there are no sellers, there will be no buyers.” He pointed out that large buyers often need a reasonable supply to build size without moving the price against them, and that large sales can sometimes be a situation that allows for such accumulation, depending on motivation and finances.
He briefly extended that view to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), noting that he wasn’t sure if the company would “be required (from an accounting perspective) to sell any assets,” but added that, in his words, the market could be a “wild west,” where “another buyer might be after that money at the right price.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,713.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
