Weekly pending sales
Pending home sales data provide a week-to-week perspective, although results may be affected by holidays and temporary fluctuations, such as the recent winter storm that hit the country. I was expecting a bit of a blast last week and we were already a lot higher than I wanted. Soon, the effect of winter will completely fade in the housing data. Our pending weekly sales data falls into monthly sales data 30-60 days out.
For those asking about the recent home sales report that missed sales estimates, this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast goes into the reasons why, and it really wasn’t about the weather as much as it was the holiday impact.
Weekly pending sales for the past week for the past two years:
- 2026: 59,469
- 2025: 60,316
Note: Before the snow storm came, all the forward data lines were positive from year to year, so I believe we are almost done with all the snow damage. For example, our total pending home sales data, which is less volatile, has shown year-over-year growth every week this year.
Mortgage application data
Buy app data is where I believe we hit the hardest ice. While we haven’t seen a single week of negative year-over-year data in 2026, the week-over-week results have picked up over the past two weeks, and we saw a slight decline last week. What I’d like to see is about 12-14 weeks of positive week-to-week data, and before the snow storm hits the US, we’ve had the best start to the year in years.
These applications typically delay sales data for 30 to 90 days. Here’s 2026 so far:
- 2 positive results from week to week
- 2 weekly negative prints
- 1 weekly flat print
- 3 weeks of double digit growth year over year
- 5 weeks of auspicious year during growing year
10-year yield and housing rates
In HousingWire’s forecast for 2026, I expect the following range:
- Loan rates are between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
We finally had some action on the 10 year yield last week. Even with the positive jobs report in the headlines, the bond market wasn’t buying the strong headline jobs data, and we closed the week on Friday lower at about 4.05%, so it’s not that far off the forecast lows of 3.80%. The CPI inflation report was soft enough to help the 10-year yield fall sharply on Friday. At one point this past week, we were at 4.25%, so a big yield move this past week.
Rates ended the week down 6.04%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and mortgage rate data from Polly shows a weekend rate of 6.07%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads remain positive for housing in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility, and are close to normal levels. Historically, mortgage spreads have varied from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spread closed at 1.91%. If spreads match 2023 highs, mortgage rates could be 1.20 percentage points higher, at 7.24%. As spreads return to normal, mortgage rates may remain lower for longer than in previous years.
Weekly housing inventory data
Home listings have grown steadily week by week. In a few weeks, we will see the spring season increase in inventory, which is very common when it happens in late February or early March; Last March was not a good story for asset growth. However, I believe we should grow during that time. The rate of inventory growth has slowed significantly since the price drop, but remains high enough to sustain prices. We went from 33% year-over-year growth to 8.24% last week.
- Weekly inventory changes: (Feb. 6-Feb. 13): Inventory increased from 687,697 to 690,547
- Same week last year: (Feb. 7-Feb. 14): Inventory increased from 632,325 to 637,984
New listing data
New listings data had a positive rebound last week. I believe this is due to the fading snow data in the dataset, with the data being slightly negative year to year, which I also blame on the storm; We’ve been hoping every year for more reports before a snow storm hits. I hope that the new listing data ranges between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during peak seasons, as was the case from 2013-2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here is the last week’s listing data for the past two years:
- 2026: 54,324
- 2025: 56,558
Discount percentages
In general, about one-third of homes are discounted before they sell, reflecting the volatile nature of the housing market. As the mortgage and property values rise together, the percentage of the amortization increases. However, prices are close to multi-year lows, so after a very long time, we are now seeing year-over-year price reduction percentage data. This should not be surprising given that demand has slowed and inventory growth has slowed. This week, we are down about 1% from last year at this time.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
Next week: Housing data, Fed remarks and inflation
We’ll get a series of housing reports this week, including pending home sales, which I believe will reflect the impact of the snow, as well as new home sales, housing starts and builder confidence data. We will have more The Federal Reserve expressions and inflation data. It will be interesting to see if the 10-year yield tests the decline we saw last year and if it holds the line after the sharp decline in yields last week. We are very close to the forecast low for mortgage rates and 10-year yields, so this will be an interesting week for the bond market.
