XRP jumped nearly 25% from its recent decline (at some point), and Cryptoinsightuk founder Will Taylor says this move has reopened the debate about whether XRP is starting a big push that could eventually point to the $8–$12 area or whether it’s a short-term squeeze that needs to cool down first.
Taylor said he is “up in the air” on the next step, as he is staying longer. His skepticism is based on a simple contradiction: the low periods seem to be extended, but XRP has a history of accelerating after a surge rather than a quick pullback.
What XRP Charts Tell You
Hourly, Taylor noted that XRP’s RSI has repeatedly hit overbought territory and “crossed bearish on the hour,” a short-term warning that often precedes a pullback or sideways digestion.
At four hours, he described the RSI as “the highest I’ve ever seen it,” and tried to contextualize what happened the last few times XRP was similarly hot. In a previous episode, he said XRP pulled back briefly, then continued higher “like 36%”. In another, he described a rally sequence where the price rallied and ran again, adding “another 129%” in the next leg.
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That’s the crux of his problem: overbought conditions can be a hallmark of many markets, but Taylor argues that XRP’s strongest phases often start with the RSI going overboard, not stop there. “When XRP’s daily RSI is overbought, XRP is tearing up prices most of the time,” he said, retreating in reflex to lose steam.
On the daily chart, he highlighted what he sees as a constructive technical shift. XRP closed above a short-term range that would have averaged a multi-day price range, and posted “XRP’s highest daily close since November 13th.” Taylor emphasized how quickly XRP cleared that ceiling this time around: after several failed attempts in the past weeks, “we’re going right in.”
XRP Price Target
From there, Taylor laid out an upside logic using RSI historical analogs. He said the previous three daily overbought signals during the current cycle were accompanied by major extensions, citing moves of nearly 414% in one period and 36% and 49% in others. He put this as pattern recognition rather than prediction: “this absolute reality,” he said, referring to the historical relationship between overbought daily RSI and successive rises but still translating those rough percentages into potential areas.
A slight advance on the order of ~39%, according to his words, would take XRP to around $3.13. A larger extension could revisit the all-time high near $3.66. A more aggressive interpretation, consistent with his broader wave thesis, would push XRP “up to our targets of $8 to $12 in this wave.”
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Structurally, Taylor said the market is at a point where multiple Elliott Wave calculations can be argued. He drew competing interpretations: XRP could be acting in an ABC-type move from a low, it could be nearing a five-wave high, or it could be a third wave extension within a five-wave trend. “My honest answer right now is I don’t know,” he said.
Even without committing to a wave count, Taylor said the “impulsive” character of the meeting stands out. He pointed out “the length of these candles supported by volume” on all exchanges, arguing that the movement looks different than before, the price action is more corrective. For him, the active test is a continuation of the near term: he wants to see “some really aggressive candles” in the next day or two to support the view that XRP is leading a wide leg rather than pressing and stopping.
Liquidity is another aspect it does not look at. Taylor said XRP “hourly took a big chunk of our money,” while flagging areas below $1.70 down to $1.66. He said that in the established trends he would “expect to continue further,” but those lower pools, combined with the extended RSI and nearby resistance in the related pair XRP, prevent him from treating the current level as a clean innovation.
Taylor said these mixed signals are why he’s considering a long-term bearish on XRP, noting that he’s “in the 90% zone”. His point was simple: XRP has delivered “pretty good moves,” but the next few sessions are crucial.
29 minutes $XRP TA. pic.twitter.com/aJ4yiC7Sdr
– Cryptoinsightuk (@Cryptoinsightuk) January 6, 2026
If XRP continues to print strong daily candles and related pairs begin to close above resistance, its $8–$12 zone framework remains a live guide for the bull case. Otherwise, the same overbought signals and nearby cash pockets increase the chances that XRP will start to reset with a consolidation or reversal before any major leg development.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.25.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
