Gold continues to climb to record highs while Bitcoin struggles to find higher price levels, reinforcing the growing divergence across global markets. According to a recent report by CryptoQuant, the current investment landscape has become a tale of two worlds.
On the other hand, precious metals and US equities are attracting steady inflows as investors seek assets with clear momentum and perceived stability. On the other hand, Bitcoin is showing signs of fatigue, with on-chain data showing that the market is losing momentum rather than preparing for a quick recovery.
CryptoQuant highlights about the convergence of indicators that suggest that the crypto market is entering a very fragile phase. Although the price remains elevated compared to historical bear market levels, fundamental metrics point to weak demand and reduced participation from key market segments. This disconnect means that Bitcoin’s struggle is not just technical, but structural, centered on changing currency options and risk appetite.
The difference is amazing. As gold gains from high uncertainty and equity markets rise sharply in anticipation of liquidity, Bitcoin seems to be caught in consolidation, unable to attract the same flow driven by belief. This growing divergence raises important questions about Bitcoin’s role in the current cycle and whether it can reassert itself as a competitive asset amid tightening conditions and changing investor behavior.
Institutional Exodus and Diminishing Capital Pressure
The report points to a clear institutional regression heavy on the structure of the Bitcoin market. The Coinbase Premium Index, the main representative of US institutional demand, remains deeply negative and recently reached an all-time low of -0.169%. This indicates that selling pressure during US trading hours is materially stronger than the global average.
Notably, the index has turned positive only twice throughout January, reinforcing the view that institutions and high-value participants are trying to withdraw rather than accumulate exposure. Historically, ongoing negative premiums of this range have typically been associated with distribution phases, not early phase acquisitions.
Adding to this weakness is the evaporation of the “dry powder” market. The combined market capitalization of the top 12 stablecoins contracted by $2.24 billion recently, extending the biggest decline of about $5.6 billion.
This behavior differs from the normal circulation in stable coins seen before dip buying phases. Instead, it reflects another dynamic: money leaving the crypto ecosystem entirely and moving back to fiat. Without liquidity on the sidelines ready to re-enter, the upward reaction is structurally weak and short-lived.
Amidst institutional selling and declining corporate capital, Bitcoin’s near-term bias remains bearish. In a bearish scenario, important levels to watch include the True Price near $81,000, the 2024 high near $70,000, and finally the 200-week moving average near $58,000.
On the other hand, a bearish outcome will likely require more time for lateral consolidation, allowing overhead availability to come in while stablecoin income returns and new capital slowly returns.
Bitcoin Remains Trapped Below Key Moving Averages
Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure, with the price hovering near the $88,000 area after failing to recover the upper resistance levels. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs from the October high near $125,000, confirming that the broader structure has changed from trend progression to distribution and consolidation. Each rescue attempt was subjected to downward spiraling rates, reinforcing the loss of upward momentum.
The price remains below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which are now bottoming out and serving as dynamic resistance in the $95,000–$98,000 area. The 200-day moving average remains higher, near the $105,000 area, and continues to define the long-term trend line. As long as BTC trades below these levels, rallies may be corrective rather than bullish.
On the other hand, the $85,000–$87,000 region has emerged as a key short-term support, consistent with recent consolidation declines. A sharp sell-off in November, followed by a jump in high volume, suggests forced downsizing rather than organic accumulation. Since then, the volume has been steadily declining, pointing to a reduction in participation and a lack of strong regulatory certainty.
Bitcoin seems to be locked in a pressure phase. Barring a decisive re-evaluation of the mid-range moving averages, risks remain tilted to the contrary. Conversely, a sustained reception above $95,000 would be needed to reverse the short-term bias back to stability rather than continuing the corrective trend.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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