Bitcoin is testing resistance at $93.5K as analysts watch the weekly close for confirmation of a breakout and possible reversal in early 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC) entered 2026 with a strong start, showing a gain of more than 7% last week. The stock is valued at $93,600 at press time, up 1% in the last 24 hours. Daily trading volume remains high at $51.5 billion.
On Tuesday morning, Bitcoin rose to its highest level in nearly two months, approaching the $95,000 mark. Unlike previous moves, the weekend’s rally held until Monday, a change from recent patterns where gains were often quickly erased.
Value Goes to Critical Resistance
Bitcoin rebounded from the lower end of its weekly range near $86,200. This level has served as a support point in the past. The price has now risen to test the top of this range near $93,500. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that a close above this level would signal a potential breakout. The stock is currently trading above the high range, but the weekly close will be important.
Notably, the move also comes as BTC breaks above the downtrend line that has existed since October 2025. This line, which was taken from the highs and lows, has now been broken. Holding above $93,500 is seen by many traders as a level that may change the picture in the medium term.
“$93,500 needs to hold as mid-term bullish support,” said Rekt Capital.
Despite recent gains, market analysts remain cautious. Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin closed its 12-month candle below $93,500. Based on historical cycles, the same levels remain constant for several years until the next half year.
“If Bitcoin has indeed started a bear market, the price could rise above $93,500 in the coming months … before continuing lower.”
Sykodelic, another market analyst, pointed to strong buying activity driving recent gains. They noted a spike in the On-Balance Volume indicator and stated that Coinbase is showing signs of a local premium. However, they added a warning:
“We need to go through and hold $94.5K. If not, we may revisit $89K.”
Macro Trends May Change
Analyst Lark Davis drew attention to the technical crossover on the balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve. A monthly MACD gold cross has been formed, which last occurred in 2019. Meanwhile, Bitcoin began a massive rally in the following months.
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“It’s not official QE yet … but it looks like QE and smells like QE,” Davis said.
The crossover suggests the Fed’s balance sheet may be growing again after months of contraction. This currency shift may affect the markets in early 2026, especially risk assets like Bitcoin.
Michaël van de Poppe has identified the $90,000–$91,000 range as a temporary level that needs to continue. This location also corresponds to a 21-day travel average. Failure to catch up may result in re-evaluation of the lower levels.
“If that holds and the lower forms are higher, we could be looking at $100K,” he said.
Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin is recovering from a correction. The current phase is described as consolidation, although market conditions remain uncertain. While many metrics are improving, some analysts believe this rally could be the last leg before a major decline.
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