Why 2026 may finally be the year homeowners let their rates go 2-3 percent
A few years ago, many homeowners felt like they were holding a winning hand, with a two to three percent mortgage rate that seemed too good to pass up. And honestly, who could blame them? Those numbers were historic. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell below 3 percent in 2020 and 2021, a rate that has only occurred for a short time in US history and has since more than doubled, with rates rising to the low 6 percent range through the end of 2025.
But as we look to 2026, the conversation is changing. More and more homeowners are realizing that holding on to an endlessly low rate may no longer be the winning strategy it once seemed. Instead of asking, “At what rate do I quit?” they begin to ask the most important question: “Does my home still fit my life?”
Why Does the Lock Work Eventually Fading
Between 2020 and 2022, most homeowners are locked into mortgage rates below 4 percent, creating an effective lock-in. Even those who needed more space, wanted a different building, or faced family changes hesitated to move, fearing high fees.
But markets change, and so do people.
Mortgage rates have stabilized, property values have improved slightly, and homeowners are rescheduling. Instead of focusing solely on the quality they would leave behind, many are evaluating whether their current home still fits their lifestyle and long-term goals. That change of mind is the opening of the movement.
Lifestyle changes are driving housing decisions as well
One of the healthiest indicators in any housing market is when decisions are driven by health, not fear. It’s happening more and more in Las Vegas.
Growing families are running out of space. Retirees are ready to simplify. Divorce, blended families, and multigenerational living arrangements are changing housing needs. We are also seeing homeowners relocating to care for elderly parents moving to Southern Nevada.
Many of these decisions were put in place a few years ago. Now, as the market tightens, quality of life priorities take center stage again, and for many homeowners, the long-term benefits of Las Vegas still outweigh short-term valuation concerns. In the Las Vegas area, this change is reflected in slower sales and longer days on the market compared to busy years, indicating a market that is recovering rather than stagnating.
Work flexibility keeps Las Vegas competitive
Las Vegas continues to benefit from internal migration, especially from California, the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Midwest. Remote and hybrid work models have given buyers more freedom to choose where they live, and Southern Nevada remains attractive because of its relative affordability, tax benefits, and lifestyle.
At the same time, local homeowners are making the best moves in the village, moving closer to work, schools, or family as employers prepare for the expected return to work. This steady, targeted movement helps support a balanced market.
Inventory and incentives reduce the fear factor
For a long time, the biggest doubt wasn’t selling, it was buying the next home. That fear is starting to disappear.
Active inventory has improved significantly from the very low levels of 2021 and 2022. Local market reports show that the supply of Las Vegas homes is increasing every year, giving buyers more options and reducing the stress of rushing to make a decision. Builders still offer incentives, and traditional sellers are increasingly willing to help with closing costs or concessions if the home sits on the market. These changes make buying a loft more affordable than most homeowners realize.
The result is more confidence, fewer snap decisions, and a market that feels more navigable.
Accepting the new real measure
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Two to three percent mortgage rates were once a generation. More homeowners agree that waiting forever for their return may mean waiting forever.
Instead, many embraced the brilliant idea. Take action when it suits your lifestyle and plan for opportunities to refinance if rates improve in the future. That change alone opens up the movement.
Giving a low price can feel like a loss. But as time goes by, that emotional barrier weakens. Homeowners realize that living in the wrong home for too long can limit flexibility, comfort, and opportunity for the future.
Equity A quiet power player
One of the biggest enablers of movement is balance.
Strong appreciation over the past few years has created a reasonable balance for many homeowners. That equity can be used to increase down payments, reduce monthly payments, pay off high-interest debt, or bridge the gap between selling and buying.
In most cases, it’s not today’s interest rate that makes the move, it’s the equity that builds over time.
A market moving toward balance
Not all market segments move at the same speed. Entry-level and mid-priced homes tend to get traction first, while higher-priced properties may take longer due to a smaller buyer pool. That’s normal, and reinforces why neighborhood-level data is more important than national headlines.
Looking ahead, 2026 has the potential to represent true market normalization. Not a bomb. Not the bus. Just moderation, tighter pricing, improved inventory, more predictable financing options, and decisions driven by life instead of fear.
For homeowners who have been waiting for the right moment, that balance may be the signal they’ve been looking for.
Tim Deibert is the note’s moderator. Mortgage Agency, boasting 29 years of expertise in the Las Vegas real estate market.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners. To contact the editor responsible for this piece: [email protected].
